#38
forecast
open
pleb it will drive your bus in some cities within 5 years
read as: By August 2031, AI systems will be driving public buses in at least some cities.
Every claim is a line somebody actually said in channel 39, kept with the conversation around it. Nothing here was typed by hand into the bot. Lines it decided were not claims are not published.
What counts. “Trump will bomb Iran within 7 days” is a good one: it names a thing, gives a date, and two independent outlets could settle it. Opinions, jokes, sarcasm and remarks about people are dropped — along with forecasts that never say by when, since nothing that cannot come due can ever be scored.
pleb it will drive your bus in some cities within 5 years
read as: By August 2031, AI systems will be driving public buses in at least some cities.
I guess he has a point- since, for example, 95% of the shootings in NYC are by minorities ( a fact), then any attmept to cut down on gun violence clearly will primarily "target" the minority population. stop and frisk was a good example of my previous point.
read as: Minorities are responsible for 95% of shootings in New York City.
The checkable core — that roughly 95% of NYC shootings are committed by minorities — matches NYPD's own suspect and arrestee data across two separate reporting periods: the NYPD's mid-2012 Crime and Enforcement report put shooting suspects at 97% Black or Latino, and the NYPD's year-end 2024 report (summarized by Vital City) puts shooting suspects at 65% Black plus 33% Hispanic, with arrestees at 64% plus 32%. The stop-and-frisk half of the statement is also borne out: the Floyd v. City of New York record showed about 83% of 4.4 million stops were of Black and Hispanic New Yorkers. What the sources do not support is the causal framing bundled with the numbers — suspect race is largely drawn from victim/witness descriptions in a city where most shootings go uncleared, and the Floyd court found the stop pattern racially discriminatory rather than simply a by-product of who shoots. Contradicting reporting noted: New York City Council Data Team, HuffPost (expert caveats within the same 2012 report coverage), Center for Constitutional Rights. (high confidence)
I guess he has a point- since, for example, 95% of the shootings in NYC are by minorities ( a fact), then any attmept to cut down on gun violence clearly will primarily "target" the minority population.
read as: Approximately 95% of shooting suspects in New York City are members of racial minority groups, according to New York Police Department data.
The checkable part of the statement — that roughly 95% of NYC shooting suspects are minorities — is supported by NYPD's own suspect data across separate years and separate underlying datasets: the year-end Crime and Enforcement Activity report puts shooting suspects at about 65% Black and 33% Hispanic (~98% combined), the 2014 edition of the same series put Black suspects alone at about three-quarters of shootings, and an analysis of the NYC Open Data shooting-offender records covering ~19,000 suspected shooters since 2006 found only about 1.5% listed as white. The figure is if anything understated at 95%. The second half of the statement (that any gun-violence effort 'clearly' will primarily target minorities) is an inference, not a factual claim, and is not adjudicated here; the caveat that NYPD suspect race comes from victim/witness descriptions and only exists for the subset of complaints with descriptions does not change the magnitude. Contradicting reporting noted: NYPD (primary document), peer-reviewed study (PMC). (high confidence)
I claim 1+2+3+4+...= -1/12
Taken literally — the ordinary sum of an infinite series — the claim is false: every reference and expert account says 1+2+3+4+... is a divergent series whose partial sums grow without bound, so it has no finite sum. The value -1/12 is genuinely attached to the series, but only by zeta-function regularisation, analytic continuation or Ramanujan summation, i.e. under a redefinition of what '=' means; Evelyn Lamb (Scientific American), Berman & Freiberger (Plus, Cambridge's Millennium Maths Project), the standard mathematical literature summarised by Wikipedia/Hardy, and even the physicists defending the result in Physics Today all draw that distinction explicitly. The statement was made flatly, with no regularisation caveat, so as stated it does not hold. Contradicting reporting noted: Numberphile, New York Times (Dennis Overbye, 'In the End, It All Adds Up to -1/12', Feb 2014; reprint), arXiv (Smoothed asymptotics: from number theory to QFT). (high confidence)
tell 39 The lions will win their division, the national league, and the super bowl in the 2026/2027 season..
read as: The Detroit Lions will win their NFL division, the NFC championship, and the Super Bowl in the 2026-27 season.
ok, I claim Trump will bomb Iran within 7 days
read as: The United States will carry out a military strike on Iran on or before 2026-08-10.
LOL - Pride Parade Pete (Buttigieg) too 1st place in the Michigan democrat 2028 presidential candidate poll
TPSI poll Jul 25-29 2026 762 LV: Buttigieg 24.2 pct, first ahead of Ossoff 13.9. NB an earlier Detroit News/Glengariff poll Jul 8-11 had Harris first 25.1 and Buttigieg second 19.4 - true of the poll he quoted
Ground truth, and the one thing no machine here is allowed to write. Every yes and no comes from a person, and the weekly attempt to improve the judge's prompt is scored on these and nothing else.
Kept apart on purpose. Calling the future well and describing the present accurately are different skills, and one averaged number would flatter whoever talks in the safer register.
forecasts, once settled
Nothing settled yet. A name appears here once three of its claims have been checked against sources.
statements of fact, once checked
Nothing settled yet. A name appears here once three of its claims have been checked against sources.
What any user sees. Ten slots, seventy-eight columns each — the whole budget for a scoreboard, which is why the format was built to the constraint rather than truncated into it.
fics% finger claimbot
Finger of claimbot(U):
1: Every claim and its sources: https://claimbot-231.pages.dev
2: I keep score of claims made in channel 39 that the news can settle.
3: "tell claimbot help" for commands. "tell claimbot optout" to be left out.
4: No reply from me? "set tell 1" - I am unregistered, so my tells bounce.
5: 3 open, 4 settled. 2026-08-05.
6: # claimbot v0.4.0 open=3 res=4 pend=2 lbl=2/3 d=2026-08-05